首页> 中文期刊> 《气候变化研究进展》 >树轮记录的川西金川1713-2010年6月平均气温变化

树轮记录的川西金川1713-2010年6月平均气温变化

         

摘要

Tree-ring width ofPicea schrenkiana sampled at Jinchuan and its response to climate change were analyzed.Correlation analysis indicates that the tree-ring chronology and the June mean air temperature at Jinchuan station in the West Sichuan Plateau was significantly correlated.The June mean air temperature series of 1713-2010 at Jinchuan was well reconstructed.Its reliability was substantiated by the leave-one-out method.According to the reconstructed temperature series,the June mean air temperature over the period was 18.2 ℃.The reconstructed series contained three warm periods:1825-1839,1854-1892 and 1951-1961,as well as four cold periods:1792-1804,1842-1853,1864-1893 and 1911-1924.Power spectrum analysis and wavelet analysis show that the series had variation periods of 2-3,7-8,20-30,32-64 and 70-130 years.%利用采自川西高原金川情人海沟的云杉树轮样本,分析了树轮宽度与气候要素的关系.结果表明:树轮宽度指数与金川气象站6月平均气温具有显著的正相关关系.利用标准化树轮宽度指数重建了该区域1713-2010年6月平均气温序列,交叉检验及各项检验的参数表明重建方程是稳定可靠的.近298年来川西金川6月平均气温为18.2℃,经历了3个暖期和4个冷期.暖期时段为1825-1839、1854-1892和1951-1961年;冷期时段为1792-1804、1842-1853、1864-1893和1911-1924年.周期分析结果表明,重建序列存在2~3、7~8、20~30、32~64和70~130 a的变化周期.

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