为了防止突出煤层在煤巷掘进中发生突出,减少防突措施工程量,基于模糊数学与多元统计分析理论,建立突出预测指标敏感度函数数学模型,将预测指标敏感度定量化,通过定量与定性对比分析确定突出预测敏感指标.在某煤矿021710掘进工作面的应用实践表明:钻屑瓦斯解吸指标△h2较钻屑量S更为敏感,运用△h2指标预测掘进工作面突出危险性,可减少防突工程量,实现煤巷快速安全掘进.%In order to prevent outburst danger occurred in the seam gateway driving in outburst seam and to reduce the engineering workload of the outburst prevention measures,based on the fuzzy mathematics and multivariate statistical analysis theory,a mathematics model of the outburst prediction index sensitivity function was established.The prediction index sensitivity was quantified and with the quantification and qualitative comparison analysis,the outburst prediction sensitive index was determined.The application practices in No.021710 driving face of a mine showed that the gas desorption index △h2 of the drilling cuttings was more sensitive than the drilling cutting index S.The index △h2 applied to predict outburst danger of the driving face could reduce the engineering workload of the outburst prevention and could realize the rapid and safe driving of the seam gateway.
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