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首页> 外文期刊>寒旱区科学：英文版 >Predictions of future hydrological conditions and contribution of snow and ice melt in total discharge of Shigar River Basin in Central Karakoram, Pakistan
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Predictions of future hydrological conditions and contribution of snow and ice melt in total discharge of Shigar River Basin in Central Karakoram, Pakistan

机译：巴基斯坦喀喇昆仑山脉中部什gar河流域未来水文状况预测以及冰雪融化对总流量的贡献

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摘要

The high mountains of Hindu-Kush Karakoram and Himalaya (HKKH) contain a large volume of snow and ice, which are the primary sources of water for the entire mountainous population of HKKH. Thus, knowledge of these available resources is very important in relation to their sustainable use. A Modified Positive Degree Day Model was used to simulate daily discharge with the contribution of snow and ice melt from the Shigar River Basin, Central Karakoram, Pakistan. The basin covers an area of 6,921 km2 with an elevation range of 2,204 to 8,611 m a.s.l.. Forty percent of the total area is glaciated among which 20% is covered by debris and remaining 80% by clean ice and permanent snow. To simulate daily discharge, the entire basin was divided into 26 altitude belts. Remotely sensed land cover types are derived by classifying Landsat images of 2009. Daily temperature and precipitation from Skardu meteorological station is used to calibrate the glacio-hydrological model as an input variable after correlating data with the Shigar station data (r=0.88). Local temperature lapse rate of 0.0075 °C/m is used. 2 °C critical temperature is used to separate rain and snow from precipitation. The model is calibrated for 1988~1991 and validated for 1992~1997. The model shows a good Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and volume difference in calibration (0.86% and 0.90%) and validation (0.78% and 6.85%). Contribution of snow and ice melt in discharge is 32.37% in calibration period and 33.01% is validation period. The model is also used to predict future hydrological regime up to 2099 by using CORDEX South Asia RCM considering RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. Predicted future snow and ice melt contributions in both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are 36% and 37%, respectively. Temperature seems to be more sensitive as compared to other input variables, which is why the contribution of snow and ice in discharge varies significantly throughout the whole century.
机译：Hindu-Kush Karakoram和喜马拉雅山（HKKH）的高山积雪和冰雪大量，是整个HKKH山区人口的主要水源。因此，关于这些可用资源的知识对于它们的可持续利用非常重要。修改后的正度日模型用于模拟每日排放量，其中有来自巴基斯坦中部喀喇昆仑州Shigar河盆地的融雪和冰冻融化。该盆地面积为6,921平方千米，海拔范围为2,204至8,611 m a.s.l.。冰川覆盖了总面积的40％，其中20％被碎屑覆盖，其余80％被清洁的冰和永久积雪覆盖。为了模拟日常排放，整个盆地被分为26个海拔带。通过对2009年的Landsat影像进行分类，可以得出遥感的土地覆盖类型。在将数据与Shigar站数据关联之后，使用Skardu气象站的日温度和降水量作为输入变量来校准冰川水文模型（r = 0.88）。使用0.0075°C / m的局部温度下降速率。 2°C临界温度用于将雨雪与降水分开。该模型在1988〜1991年进行了校准，并在1992〜1997年进行了验证。该模型显示出良好的Nash-Sutcliffe效率以及校正（0.86％和0.90％）和验证（0.78％和6.85％）的体积差异。校准期排放的冰雪融化贡献率为32.37％，验证期为33.01％。考虑到RCP4.5和RCP8.5气候情景，该模型还可以通过使用CORDEX南亚RCM来预测到2099年的未来水文情势。 RCP4.5和RCP8.5预测的未来冰雪融化贡献分别为36％和37％。与其他输入变量相比，温度似乎更为敏感，这就是为什么在整个世纪中雪和冰在排放中的贡献差异很大的原因。

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  • 来源
    《寒旱区科学：英文版》 |2017年第006期|P.599-612|共14页
  • 作者

    Javed Hassan; Rijan Bhakta Kayastha; Ahuti Shrestha; Iram Bano; Sayed Hammad Ali; Haleem Zaman Magsi;

  • 作者单位

    [1]Himalayan Cryosphere, Climate and Disaster Research Center, Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, School of Science, Kathmandu University, Nepal;

    [2]Department of Earth Sciences Karakoram International University, Gilgit-Baltistan 15100, Pakistan;

    [1]Himalayan Cryosphere, Climate and Disaster Research Center, Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, School of Science, Kathmandu University, Nepal;

    [1]Himalayan Cryosphere, Climate and Disaster Research Center, Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, School of Science, Kathmandu University, Nepal;

    [1]Himalayan Cryosphere, Climate and Disaster Research Center, Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, School of Science, Kathmandu University, Nepal;

    [1]Himalayan Cryosphere, Climate and Disaster Research Center, Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, School of Science, Kathmandu University, Nepal;

    [2]Department of Earth Sciences Karakoram International University, Gilgit-Baltistan 15100, Pakistan;

  • 收录信息 中国科学引文数据库(CSCD);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 CHI
  • 中图分类 初等教育;
  • 关键词

    positive; degree; day; factor; simulated; discharge; daily; meteorological; variables; debris; covered; ice; clean; ice;

    机译：积极的;度;日;因子;模拟;放电;每日;气象;变量;碎片;覆盖;冰;清洁;冰;
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