Exploratory analysis is an effective method in solving complex problems of uncertainty. Combine of simulation with exploratory analysis can highly improve the efficiency and quality of evaluation.This paper firstly presents the advantage and common process of simulation⁃based exploratory analysis. Aiming at evaluation of air defense capability of carrier forma⁃tion, main factors of influencing it are discussed, and key technologies of simulation of air defense combat of carrier forma⁃tion are introduced. Finally, we demonstrate the simulation⁃based exploratory analysis methodology of air defense capability of carrier formation.%探索性分析是解决复杂不确定性问题的有效方法，仿真与探索性分析相结合，可以提高分析评估的质量和效率。首先介绍了基于仿真的探索性分析方法的优势和一般过程。针对航母编队防空作战能力问题，分析提出了影响航母编队防空作战能力的主要因素，介绍了航母编队防空作战仿真的关键技术，最后，通过示例说明了基于仿真的航母编队防空作战能力探索性分析方法。
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