Abstrca t:Aiming at the test data having the feature of small sample and nonlinearity and low prediction accuracy using traditional UGM(1,1) in missile degradation condition prediction, the structure mode of background value in traditional UGM(1,1) is opti-mized and a new calculation formula of background value is designed through analyzing the modeling process of traditional UGM (1,1).Further more, a method of missile degradation condition prediction based on improved UGM(1,1) is proposed.Missile in storage condition as an example is used to realize key parameters predicting.Finally, the results validate the rationality and ef-fectiveness of improved UGM(1,1) prediction model.%针对导弹退化状态预测中存在的测试数据不等间隔、小样本,使用传统非等间隔灰色预测模型(Unequal Interval Grey Model,UGM(1,1))预测精度不高的问题,通过分析传统UGM(1,1)的建模过程,对传统UGM(1,1)的背景值构造方式进行优化,设计一种新的背景值计算公式,进而提出一种基于背景值优化UGM(1,1)预测模型的导弹退化状态预测方法.以贮存状态下的某型导弹为例,实现关键参数预测,结果验证了该方法的合理性与有效性.
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