选取绵茂公路典型的徐家坝泥石流沟为例,运用层次分析法对其危险性进行建模和评价分析,主要从历史危险和潜在危险2个方面去考虑其危险性.依据该模型,得出的结果为历史危险性和潜在危险性各占比重为0.5,这与地质人员现场调查的结果一致.因此,该方法可以推广到绵茂公路其他泥石流沟的危险度评价中,为绵茂公路泥石流风险评估提供科学依据.%This article selects the typical Xujiaba debris flow gully in MianMao highway as the example, using the analytic hierarchy process to model its risk modeling, and then to evaluate it, mainly from two aspects of potential and history to consider its dangers. According to this model, the result shows that the proportion of historical risk and potential risk is 0.5 respectively, this result is consistent with the field survey results of geological personnel. So, this method can be applied to the risk assessment of other debris flow gully in MianMao highway, to provide scientific basis for the risk assessment of debris flow in MianMao highway.
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