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影响南平烤烟产量的主要气象因子及产量预报

         

摘要

The correlations between meteorological factors and unit area yield and the ratio of high class leaves of flue-cured tobacco in Nanping city were analyzed,and the results showed that the major meteorological factor affecting the unit area yield of flue-cured tobacco was the rainfall of the first half year,and their correlation was negative.The meteorological factors affecting the tobacco leaves quality were the effective accumulated temperature above 8℃ during the field duration and the minimum temperature during 1st January to 20th July.The yield forecasting model was established by using stepwise regression method,which provided the scientific basis for high-yielding and high quality of flue-cured tobacco in Nanping city.%运用相关分析对南平市烤烟生产的相关气象因子与当年烤烟单产、上等烟比率进行了比较分析,结果表明:影响南平市烤烟单产的主要气象因子是上半年的降水量(降水日数),且为负相关;影响南平烤烟品质的主要气象因子为大田期≥8.0℃有效积温和1月1日~7月20日最低气温.利用逐步回归的方法将相关较好的气象因子建立了产量预测模型,以为南平市的烤烟优质高产提供科学依据.

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