Modelling the Potential Distribution of Vitellaria paradoxasubsp. nilotica(C.F. Gaertn) across the Kidepo Landscape of Uganda in the Face of Climate Change

Isaac Tom Okurut; John Bosco Lamoris Okullo; Daniel Waiswa; Julius Muyizzi

首页> 中文期刊> 《地球科学和环境保护期刊（英文）》 >Modelling the Potential Distribution of Vitellaria paradoxasubsp. nilotica(C.F. Gaertn) across the Kidepo Landscape of Uganda in the Face of Climate Change

Modelling the Potential Distribution of Vitellaria paradoxasubsp. nilotica(C.F. Gaertn) across the Kidepo Landscape of Uganda in the Face of Climate Change

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Climate change and human activities are increasingly linked with the extinction of species globally. In semi-arid regions, these pressures threaten the natural distribution and ecology of species. The threat that the shea butter tree (Vitellaria paradoxa subsp. nilotica) faces from human activity is well researched yet the sensitivity of its distribution to climate change remains barely known. We set out to assess the potential distribution of Vitellaria under different climate change scenarios using a MaxEnt. A current distribution model was first developed using only biophysical variables of soil type, temperature, precipitation, land use type, and elevation. This model was then projected onto two global warming scenarios (RCP 4.5 & RCP 8.5) for 2050 and 2070 using multi-model averages (BCC-CSM, CSM4, and MIROC5) derived from three general circulation models. Reductions are seen in distribution area across the landscape with soil type being the most important variable. These results draw useful implications for conservation of Vitellaria in that they show how it is vulnerable is to a changing climate as its natural range is mostly reduced. Since climate change is important in the distribution of the shea butter tree, the areas with highest suitability in this study can be used in establishing the Shea butter tree sustainable use zones/area within the Kidepo Critical Landscape (KCL), Uganda.

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《地球科学和环境保护期刊（英文）》 |2020年第8期|P.14-24|共11页
作者
Isaac Tom Okurut; John Bosco Lamoris Okullo; Daniel Waiswa; Julius Muyizzi;
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作者单位

Department of Environmental Management School of Forestry Environmental and Geographical Sciences College of Agricultural & Environmental Sciences Makerere University Kampala Uganda;

Department of Forestry Biodiversity & Tourism School of Forestry Environmental and Geographical Sciences College of Agricultural & Environmental Sciences Makerere University Kampala Uganda;

Department of Geography Geo-Informatics and Climatic Sciences School of Forestry Environmental and Geographical Sci-ences College of Agricultural & Environmental Sciences Makerere University Kampala Uganda;

Department of Policy Planning and Information GIS and Remote Sensing Section National Environment Management Authority Kampala Uganda;

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原文格式 PDF
正文语种 chi
中图分类气候学;
关键词
Mapping; Biophysical Variables; General Circulation Models; Dry Land; MaxEnt;

机译：制图;生物物理变量;一般环流模型;旱地;MaxEnt;

Modelling the Potential Distribution of Vitellaria paradoxasubsp. nilotica(C.F. Gaertn) across the Kidepo Landscape of Uganda in the Face of Climate Change

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