Projections of Precipitation Changes in Two Vulnerable Regions of S#227;o Paulo State, Brazil

Iracema F. A. Cavalcanti; Lucí H. Nunes; José A. Marengo; Jorge L. Gomes; Virginia P. Silveira; Marina S. Castellano

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Projections of Precipitation Changes in Two Vulnerable Regions of S#227;o Paulo State, Brazil

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Weather and climate extremes are part of the natural variability. However, the frequency and intensity of precipitation extremes have increased in the globe following the global warming. Extreme precipitation impacts such as landslides and flooding with implications to vulnerability and adaptation are discussed for two regions of the state of S?o Paulo: the Metropolitan Region of Campinas and the Metropolitan Region of the Baixada Santista, located in southeastern South America. Simulations and projections obtained from four integrations of the Regional Eta model are analyzed to investigate the model behavior during the period of 1961-1990 and the projections within the period of 2011-2100. Uncertainties are discussed based on the standard deviation among the model spread. The projections show precipitation increase in the Metropolitan Region of Campinas during DJF for the near and distant future, while there are more uncertainties in the other seasons. In the Metropolitan Region of Baixada Santista, the precipitation increase is projected to all seasons, except JJA, when there is higher uncertainty. Daily rainfall indices suggest an increase of precipitation during the rainy days, but a reduction in the number of rainy days in both locations. The projections show a reduction of light rains and an increase of heavy rains at both regions. The model identifies the South Atlantic Convergence Zone and frontal systems as precipitation patterns associated with extremes in the two locations. The results can be useful for adaptation actions, since the regions are highly populated and have high vulnerabilities.

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来源
《美国气候变化期刊（英文）》 |2017年第2期|268-293|共26页
作者
Iracema F. A. Cavalcanti; Lucí H. Nunes; José A. Marengo; Jorge L. Gomes; Virginia P. Silveira; Marina S. Castellano;
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作者单位

Center of Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies/National Institute for Space Science (CPTEC/INPE);

Cachoeira Paulista;

S.P.;

Brazil;

State University of Campinas (UNICAMP);

Cachoeira Paulista;

S.P.;

Brazil;

National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (CEMADEN);

Sã

o José dos Campos;

S.P.;

Brazil;

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原文格式 PDF
正文语种 chi
中图分类大气科学（气象学）;
关键词
Climate; Change; Precipitation; Extremes; Vulnerable; Regions; Precipitation; Indices; Regional; Model;

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Projections of Precipitation Changes in Two Vulnerable Regions of S#227;o Paulo State, Brazil

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