The imminent and impending prediction of the three elements of earthquake contributes significantly to loss reduction of earthquake disaster.But this work is difficult to do and remains a global puzzle now.We studied the Lushan earthquake of the 20 April,2013 with the time-spatial evolution rules of satellite infrared warming abnormity and analyzed this abnormality on a conference of the National Natural Disaster Committee on April 21,2013.This article briefly analyzes the tectonic setting and mechanism of the Lushan earthquake.The Lushan earthquake is an Ms 7 earthquake that occurred in the western earthquake area of China,and the earthquake mechanism is similar to that of Wenchuan earthquake.The Indian plate pushed against the Tibetan block along the NE direction,forming a fault block with a gliding direction of SEE.This fault block was blocked strongly by Longmen Mountain fault zone west of Sichuan Basin.The accumulated energy was released and the earthquake occurred.The tectonic activities before earthquake may cause a series of changes in infrared warming abnormity,and we can study these changes to predict earthquake.The evolution of the changes includes four phases:initial temperature increase,heightened temperature increase,peak temperature increase,and temperature decline with the occurrence of earthquake.%地震三要素的短临预测对抗震减灾意义重大,但实现的难度很大,仍是个世界难题.笔者应用卫星红外异常增温时空演变规律对2013年4月20日芦山地震作了研究,并在2013年4月21日全国天灾预测委员会学术研讨会上作出了分析.文中简要剖析了芦山地震的构造背景和成因机理.芦山地震是我国西部地震构造区新发生的Ms7.0级大地震,其成因同汶川地震相似,主要受到印度板块NE向对青藏地块推挤,南北压缩挤出断块向SEE滑动,受到四川盆地以西龙门山断裂带强烈阻挡,积能释放后发震.文中重点介绍了红外增温时空演变规律进行短临地震预测的过程.震前红外增温异常的动态变化是地震构造活动的反应,时间上一般经历初始增温—加强增温—高峰增温—衰减到发震的4个阶段.
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