Hebei province is one of the most active areas of seismic activity in north and even east mainland China,there is complex tectonic background and fault development.Along with the development of the province's 11 urban active fault detection and seismic risk evaluation project,some scientific projects and the accumulation of the fault structural study data,late Pleistocene fault data is further updated.Then,there is an important question of how to assess the maximum potential earthquake magnitude and the risk of these active faults on long-term earthquake prediction.Using the maximum potential earthquake magnitude assessment model proposed by Wen Xue-ze,we first divided fault cell to the active faults in Hebei region,then formed the empirical relationship between the maximum magnitudes Mmax and the at/b values of the sub-areas' frequency-magnitude relationship in the Hebei area,and got the upper limit of the potential magnitude in fault cells by the formula.Furthermore,we calculated the seismogenic probability of partial fault area in the future strong earthquakes through the exponential relation with earthquake waiting time.%河北是华北地区乃至中国大陆东部地区地震活动最为活跃的地区之一,构造背景复杂,断层发育.随着全省11个城市活断层探测与地震危险性评价项目的推进,若干科研课题的研究,地质构造资料逐步积累,晚更新世以来的断层资料得到进一步更新.如何评估这些活动断层上的最大潜在地震震级及危险性是地震中长期预测中较为重要的一个问题.本文采用闻学泽等提出的潜在地震最大震级评估模型,对河北地区晚更新世以来的活动断层进行断层小区划分,建立了断层小区内最大地震震级Mmax与震级频度关系at/b值之间的经验关系,并利用公式外推获得断层小区内的推测潜在震级上限值.另外,本文用强震等待时间的指数分布关系式计算了部分断层小区未来的中强地震发震概率.
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