The seismic belt of the lower reaches of the Yangtze River and south Yellow Sea is located in the southeast of Northern China Seismic zone, where seismic activities are strong enough and controlled by a series of faults. In this paper, based on the latest seismic data from regional network, historical strong earthquakes and seismic tectonic, et al, we obtained b values, average annual incidence of earthquake and energy density of minor to moderate earthquakes in the studied area, using mathematical statistics method. Combining the spatial distribution of b values with background activities of historical strong earthquakes and the distributions of the minor-moderate earthquake energy density, the seismic activity of the lower reaches of the Yangtze River and south Yellow Sea are further analyzed and researched. Seismic parameters are obtained and the future earthquakes in the studied area are estimated for the next hundred years, and future earthquake risk areas are preliminarily identified.%长江下游—南黄海地震带位于华北地震区东南部,带内地震主要受长江下游和南黄海海域内一系列断裂的控制,以中强地震活动为主,是地震活动较强的地区.本文充分利用该带最新的区域地震台网资料,历史地震复核资料以及地震构造等资料,统计和计算了b值、V4和中小地震能量密度值,探讨了带内b值空间分布与历史强震、中小地震能量密度值空间分布的关系,进一步研究了长江下游南黄海地震带的地震活动性特征.通过本文的研究,获得了长江下游—南黄海地震带的地震活动性参数,为概率危险性分析提供计算参数；探讨了该带未来百年地震发展趋势,初步判定了该带潜在地震危险区,为地震活动中长期预测提供参考依据和方法；研究结果对地震区划、工程场地地震安全性评价、地震活动中长期预测均有重要意义.
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