研究了亚洲11个重要地震国家或地区(阿富汗,巴基斯坦,菲律宾,日本,伊朗,印度,印尼,中国大陆,中国华北地区,中国南北带)近代地震造成人员死亡率的自相似指数标度律,并将其应用于泊松模型中,预测2025年前亚洲重要地震国家发生地震生命损失千人、 万人和十万人以上巨灾事件的概率. 其中,中国大陆华北地区、日本和印尼发生万人以上死亡的巨灾概率可能较高.%This paper studied the self-similar power scaling laws of earthquake fatalities for eleven countries or regions in Asia (including Afghanistan, Pakistan, Philippines, Japan,Iran, India, Indonesia, China continent, north China and the South-North Zone of China). The scaling laws have been used in long-term forecast of earthquake fatalities before 2 025 based on the Poisson model. The results give occurrence probabilities of earthquake fatalities (≥1000, ≥10000 and ≥100000 persons) for eleven countries or regions in Asia. Specially Japan, Indonesia, and north China would have higher occurrence probabilities of earthquake fatalities of more than 10000 persons.
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