This paper,based on the actual problems existing in the control of staffing plan,combining the characteristics and applicable scope of many human resource demand prediction methods,takes the traditional state-owned enterprises as the research object, explores the construction of the total,structure and quality demand prediction model system of human resources of state-owned enterprises,and designs the concrete methods and steps of modeling in order to answer three core is⁃sues for enterprises’ future development: “how many employees needed”,“how to distribute employees needed” and“what kind of employees needed”,and helps state-owned enterprises to eventually achieve management goal of“control of total number,optimization of structure and improvement of quality”.%文章以传统国有企业为研究对象，从其用工计划管控存在的实际问题出发，结合多种人力资源需求预测方法的特点和适用范围，探索构建国有企业人力资源总量、结构、素质需求预测模型体系，并设计具体建模方法与建模步骤，以回答企业未来“需要多少人”、“需要的人如何分布”和“需要什么样的人”的三个核心问题，以帮助国有企业最终实现“控总量、优结构、提素质”的管理目的。
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