As a sector in accord with four others (energy, industry, agriculture, and waste), land-use change and forestry (LUCF) reports a greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory per the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.It is vital to understand the provincial ability and potential of ecological carbon sequestration by studying the dynamic change of emission or sequestration of GHGs from LUCF in a region.We selected data from the sixth, seventh, and eighth National Forest Resources Inventories in 2002, 2007, and 2012, respectively, to determine net LUCF GHG emissions in 2005, 2010, and 2015.This was based on acquiring and analyzing activities and emission factors in those years, using methods outlined in the guidelines of the GHG inventory and incorporating with actual specialty of Guangdong Province.We established three scenarios to predict carbon bank and greenhouse gas emission reductions in future LUCF activities in that province.Results show that the net carbon sinks of LUCF in the province were increasing.The main reason was that an increase in carbon uptake of arbor forest was greater than that of emissions.The growth rate of living stand volume increased from 7.98％ (2005) to 9.61％ (2015), while the harvest rate dropped from 6.94％ (2005) to 5.54％ (2015).These benefits accrued from the implementation of policies and measures to address climate change in the fields of land use change and forestry in Guangdong Province over 2005–2015.Our scenario simulation results show that if future measures favor the increase of living carbon stock per unit area in the province, its forest will be important for carbon sequestration over a long period.%根据联合国气候变化框架协议的要求, 土地利用变化和林业 (LUCF) 温室气体清单是需要编制的五个部门 (能源、工业、农业、土地利用变化和林业、废弃物) 的清单之一.研究省级LUCF动态变化对掌握该区域生态固碳的能力和潜力有重要意义.该研究选取广东省森林资源第六期 (2002年) 、第七期 (2007年) 、第八期 (2012年) 一类清查数据, 采取省级LUCF温室气体清单编制的方法结合广东省实际情况, 在获取和测算广东省2005年、2010年、2015年LUCF温室气体的活动水平、排放因子的基础上, 得出全省范围LUCF温室气体清单.并设置了3种情景, 对广东省未来LUCF领域碳储量和温室气体减排进行了预测.研究结果表明广东省LUCF净碳汇量呈增长的趋势, 增长的主要原因是乔木林碳吸收的增加量高于活立木消耗碳排放的变化量.期间, 活立木蓄积生长率从7.98％ (2005) 增加到了9.61％ (2015) ;而采伐消耗率从6.94％ (2005) 下降到了5.54％ (2015) .这些得益于2005至2015十年间广东省土地利用变化和林业领域在应对气候变化方面的政策、措施的实施.情景模拟结果表明如果未来措施有利于广东省活力木碳储量的增加, 广东省森林还将发挥较长时间持续的增汇作用.
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