2015年中国宏观经济在各类数据超预期回落中步入新常态的艰难期。从短期来看,下半年中国宏观经济将在外贸回升、房地产投资触底以及消费小幅回暖的作用下于第3季度触底,第4季度小幅回升。但从周期角度来看,2015年不是本轮“不对称的 W型”周期调整的第二个底部,世界经济周期、中国房地产周期、中国的债务周期、库存周期、新产业培育周期以及政治经济周期决定了2016年中期才能出现坚实的触底反弹。针对2015年中国经济“新常态”呈现的10大新特征和4大风险,本报告认为,鉴于新常态步入到攻坚期,很多宏观指标发生变异,中国宏观经济政策无论从基本哲学、理论基础、框架体系、总体定位以及工具选择都需要全面重新梳理。%In 2015,as statistics are declining beyond anticipation,China’s macro economy entered a difficult stage of the new normal.In the short term,China’s macro economy in the second half of this year,impacted by the rising of foreign trade,the bottoming of real estate investment,and the slight bouncing back of consumption,would hit bottom in the third quarter and then modestly rebound in the fourth.However,from the cyclical perspective,the year 2015 is not going to witness this round’s second bottom of the “dissymmetric W-shaped”cycle of adj ustment.In fact,world economic cycle,China’s real estate cycle,China’s debt cycle,inventory cycle,new industry cultivation cycle,as well as political busi-ness cycle,together have determined that there would not be any strong and solid rebound until the middle of 2016.Regarding the ten new features and the four major risks emerging in “the new normal”of China’ economy,this report believes that,given the situation that the new normal has stepped into the critical stage and that many macro indicators have varied.China’s macro economy policy needs an overall renewal, in either fundamental philosophy,theoretical foundation,frameworks and systems,general orientation,or the choice of tools.
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