The variability of load data curve is studied based on the historical data and the concepts of RLF(Rates of the Load Fluctuation) and the IFR(Impact factor of the Rate) are presented. The characteristics of power consumption in Texas and the similarity of rate change in same time period are summed up based on the analysis of ERCOT data. Based on the statistical analysis of historical RLF data,the experiential RLF value is figured out,according to which and combined with the real-time load data,the short-term load is corrected and accurately forecasted. It can be applied to the short-term forecasting system and the summarization of mid-long term variation law for regional electricity load.%基于大量历史负荷数据,研究负荷数据曲线的变化性,并提出了负荷变动速率(RLF)与速率影响因子(IFR)概念.通过对ERCOT数据的分析,总结得出了得克萨斯州用电特点和相同时段内RLF的相似性.依据对RLF的历史数据统计分析,得出经验RLF值,并结合用电负荷的实时数据对短期负荷做出修正与准确预测.该方法可以应用在短期负荷预测系统及对区域中长期用电负荷变化规律的总结上.
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