由于节假日负荷成分与正常日有较大差异,加之样本较少,节假日短期负荷预测难度较大.而准确预测可以提高系统运行的可靠性和经济性.为了提高节假日负荷预测的精度,针对节假日负荷特点,利用相似日方法获得待预测日负荷归一化曲线,利用模糊推理方法对负荷水平年增长率进行调整.通过对实际负荷进行预报计算,结果表明预报精度较高,建议用于节假日短期负荷预测.%Holidays short-term forecasting is difficult to give out by reason of the rather different load components of holidays compared with other time and few examples can be reference to. As the precise load forecasting can improve the reliability and economy of the power system operation, it' s important to improve the accuracy of holidays load forecasting. The similar historical day method is used to get the scaled load curves of the days required response the characteristics of holidays load. And then the annual growth rate of load level is amended by using the fussy inference method. Through the forecasting calculations of the real load, it gives out a more precise calculation. As the result, this method is recommended to use in the holidays short-term load forecasting.
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