结合蒙特卡洛模拟法特点,提出一种蒙特卡洛模拟法与解析法结合的新方法,其基本思想是:通过对系统采样状态的简单解析判断,使70%以上的采样状态无需优化调整就可进行状态判断,从而减少每一次状态评估时间,成倍地提高了计算速度。该方法很容易与其它减小蒙特卡洛模拟方差的方法结合,从减少方差的技巧和加快状态评估速度2方面入手,既提高了模拟收敛速度,又减小了每次状态评估的时间,较好地解决了蒙特卡洛模拟法计算速度与计算精度的矛盾。通过对IEEE-RTS试验系统的计算,表明该方法的正确性和有效性。%According to the characteristic of Monte Carlo Simulation a new hybrid method combining analytical and Monte Carlo method is presented. In the method70% sampling states can be assessed directly and doesn＇t need to be rescheduled in order to reduce state assessment time. Combining with the other variable reduction techniquesthis approach not only improves the simulation convergence but also accelerates state assessment process. As a result the contrariety of computational effort and accuracy is solved well. The calculation results of IEEE-RTS demonstrate the validity and efficiency of the method.
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