本文利用WTW方法构建了面向中长期的电动汽车燃料全生命周期常规大气污染物计算模型，并对纯电动汽车、插电式混合动力汽车和传统汽油车中长期不同电源结构下的常规大气污染物排放情况进行了计算和对比分析。计算结果显示，在当前的电源结构下，纯电动汽车和插电式混合动力汽车燃料全生命周期的VOCs、CO和HC 3种污染物的排放量低于传统汽油车，但N O x、S O2、P M10和P M2.54种污染物的排放量高于传统汽油车。未来在基准电源结构情景下，相比于同等数量的传统汽油车，电动汽车的规模化发展将有效减少VOCs、CO和H C排放，但会增加N O x、P M2.5、P M10和S O2排放。而在高比例可再生能源情景下，电动汽车常规大气污染物排放将在2035年左右达到峰值，2050年电动汽车的全部常规大气污染物排放均低于传统汽油车。%This paper uses the WTW method to build a life cycle calculation model of atmospheric pollutant of electric vehicles. Then the pure electric vehicle, plug-in hybrid electric vehicle and gasoline internal combustion engine vehicle’s atmospheric pollutant emission in the future have been calculated. The results show that, under the benchmark power structure, the VOCs, CO and HC emissions of electric vehicles are lower than that of the gasoline internal combustion engine vehicles, and NOx、SO2、PM10、PM2.5 emissions are higher than that of the gasoline internal combustion engine vehicles in the future. In the high proportion of renewable energy scenario, all of the atmospheric pollutant emissions of electric vehicles are lower than gasoline internal combustion engine vehicles in 2050.
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