为分析ISC3模式中参变量的相对重要性及各参变量对模式预测结果的影响程度,采用2000年北京市全年气象统计资料,利用ISC3模拟火电厂高架点源排放,对应用广泛的ISC3空气质量模式进行了误差和灵敏度分析,结果表明:高架点源预测过程中,源强、风速、混合层高度和稳定度类型对模拟结果影响较显著,且为全程影响；排放温度、排放速度和环境温度在近距离影响较显著,对于远距离影响较小.%To analyze the relative importance of parameters in ISC3 model and the influence degree of parameters on forecast results, the authors use meteorological data in Beijing in 2000, apply the ISC3 to simulate the elevated point sources emissions from power plants, and analyze the error and sensitivity derived from Industrial Source Complex Short Term 3 (ISC3) model. The results show that in the simulation process of elevated point sources emissions, atmospheric concentration is strongly affected by source intensity of air pollutants, wind speed, mixed height and stabilization types for the whole simulating process. Emission temperature, emission speed and environment temperature have obvious impact on near regions, while have a little impact on remote regions.
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