Based on the black box theory, a mathematical model for the personnel detention in the commercial complex was established.The principle of choosing the experiment object was formulated.The experimental approach was designed to characterize the personnel detention on the weekend.Using the MATLAB to fit the personnel retention curve, two concepts were proposed: the stagnation period and the fluctuation factor of the personnel retention.The calculation formulas of the personnel detention in the weekend was obtained as well.Four stages were found in the personnel retention curve on Saturday, including the stable rising period, increasing stagnation period, rapid increasing period and rapid descending period.The personnel retention curve on Sunday follows a bimodal distribution, including rapid increasing period, the first decline after the rise phase, and rapid decline phase.%基于黑箱理论,建立商业综合体人员滞留量数学模型,制定实验对象选取原则,设计商业综合体双休日的人员滞留量规律研究实验.运用MATLAB拟合人员滞留量曲线,提出人员滞留量增长停滞期、人员滞留量波动因子概念,并得到双休日人员滞留量计算公式.研究发现,周六人员滞留量曲线分为稳定上升期、增长停滞期、快速上升期、快速下降期四个阶段;周日的人员滞留量曲线呈"双峰骆驼"形,分为快速上升阶段、先下降后上升阶段、快速下降阶段.
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