以1994-2015年湖北省16个市(州)的农业投入、产出数据,运用DEA-Malmquist生产率指数法测算出湖北省农业全要素生产率,并分别建立长期均衡模型和短期误差修正模型,从全要素生产率角度研究农田灌溉、农村公路、农村电力等三大农业基础设施投资的溢出效应.结果表明:无论是从长期还是从短期而言,灌溉投资、农村公路投资和农村电力投资对湖北省农业全要素生产率均存在正向的溢出效应.据此提出,政府应加大对灌溉、农村电力和农村公路的投资力度,加强与社会资本的合作,建立健全农业基础设施投入长效机制.%Based on the 1994-2015 agricultural input and output statistics on 16 selected cities in Hubei ,the agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) of the province was calculated using the DEA-Malmquist indexing methodology .The long-term equilibrium model and short-term error correction model were established .From the perspective of TFP ,the spillover effect on the regional agriculture by the infrastructure investments was studied . The results showed both long-and short-term investments on irrigation , rural roads and rural electricity had positive spillover effects . Hence , the provincial government should continue to invest in the infrastructures ,strengthen the coordination on capital infusions ,as well as establish an efficient mechanism on long-term investment for future development .
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