Working capital risk is one of the most important financial risks of logistics enterprises , it is the top priority for logistics enterprise in how to predict and control the working capital risk effectively. The paper is based on Maersk Group, first we use grey system theory combining the grey prediction system and interval prediction; then a set of working capital risk early warning model is formulated with high accuracy; finally, we found the optimal way of controlling working capital risk of large-scale logistics enterprises comparing and simulating the risk early warning mode of *ST listing corporations and ST listing corporations, and it provides a new method of risk management for enterprises.% 营运资金风险是物流企业最主要的财务风险之一，怎样有效地预测和控制营运资金风险，是物流企业进行财务控制的重中之重。本文以马士基集团为例，运用灰色预测系统为理论基础，把灰色系统点预测和区间预测相结合，构建一套精度较高的营运资金风险预警模型，最后比拟上市公司风险预警*ST 和 ST 方式，得出大型物流企业营运资金风险控制的最优途径，为企业资金风险管理提供了一种新方法。
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