以华北、华东、华南地区为承灾体,利用风险四要素法评估中国沿海地区电网覆冰灾害风险.以沿海各省份2015年冬季平均气温值、2015年平均气温较常年气温偏值、湿润指数、30年一遇冰区等级划分、地面高程和近30年输电线路最大覆冰厚度来表征致灾因子危险性,以电网总资产表征承灾体暴露性,以单位平方公里电网资产表征承灾体脆弱性,以电网从业人口占从业人口比例以及用电量来表征防灾减灾能力,并采用加权综合评分法建立计算模型.评估结果为辽宁省和福建省覆冰灾害风险指数最高,与近年冰灾发生情况基本一致.评估结果说明评估方法具有一定的普适性.%Considering north China,east China and south China as disastcr-affected bodies,the paper uses four-clcmcnt method for risk to assess icing disaster risks in coastal areas in China.Factors including mean winter temperature in 2015,deviation value of mean temperature in 2015 compared with year-round temperature,moisture index,grading of icing areas of every thirty years,ground level and the maximum icing thickness of power transmission lines in recent thirty years of various provinces in coastal areas are used for representing risks of disaster factors.Meanwhile,total assets of power grids are used for representing exposure of disaster-affected bodies,assets of power grids of unit square kilometer are used for representing vulnerability of disaster-affected bodies,and proportion of power grid employees and electricity consumption is adopted to represent disaster prevention and reduction capacity.The weighted comprehensive scoring method is also used to build a calculation model.Assessment results show risk index of icing disaster in Liaoning province and Fujian province is the highest,which is almost the same as situations of icing disaster in recent years.The results indicate universality of this assessment method.
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