目的 初步拟定我军前沿外科手术队(FST)的手术范围和手术时间概率分布,为研制我军FST的仿真模型提供基础.方法 以美军FST相关理论和实践成果为参考；采用专家咨询方法,拟定我军FST的手术范围和时间概率分布；收集部分“汶川地震”伤员救治数据,统计分析某医院近两年急诊手术数据,计算百分位数,比较专家咨询与实际数据的一致性；组建实验小分队,通过在犬上实施各种创伤打击并展开“前沿手术”模拟演练,优化FST的手术范围和时间概率分布.结果 我军“前沿手术”分为“紧急救命手术”和“损伤控制性手术”两大类；三角分布较好地反映前沿手术时间的概率分布；部分类型手术时间专家结果与实际数据有较好的一致性；多数类型手术时间模拟演练结果较专家结果为少.结论 专家咨询结果可以作为研制我军FST的仿真模型的参考数据,本研究为构建我军FST及其实际应用奠定基础.%Objective To formulate the surgical types and time probability distribution of forward surgical team ( FST) , which would provide experimental basis for the simulation model of our military FST. Methods We collected the relevant theory and practice achievements of American is FST, which was taken as an important basis for building our military FST. We defined the surgical types and time probability distribution of FST through expert consultation. We formulated the types of surgery and operation time probability distribution of FST by collecting the data of Wenchuan earthquake's wounded and emergency surgeries of one hospital, compute percentile of operation time, compared with the results of expert consultation. We organized a simplified FST, and gave various traumas on dogs. We optimized the simulation model of our military FST through practical exercises. Results We divided the types of surgery into emergency life-saving surgery and damage control surgery. Triangular distribution can be used to present these time distribution, and some parameters by expert are consistent with actual data, while some are not. Most operation time in practical exercises is shorter than those of experts. Conclusion The results of expert consultation could be used as the reference to setup a simulation model. Our studies provide experimental data for the development of our military FST.
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