Seismic Risk Assessment of the Railway Network of China’s Mainland

Weihua Zhu; Kai Liu; Ming Wang; Elco E.Koks

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Seismic Risk Assessment of the Railway Network of China’s Mainland

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Earthquakes pose a great risk to railway systems and services around the world.In China alone,earthquakes caused 88 rail service disruptions between 2012 and 2019.Here,we present a first-of-its-kind methodology to analyze the seismic risk of a railway system using an empirically derived train service fragility curve.We demonstrate our methodology using the Chinese railway system.In doing so,we generate a set of stochastic earthquake scenarios for China based on a national-scale seismicity model.Using disruption records,we construct an empirically grounded fragility curve that relates the failure probability of train services to peak ground acceleration.By combining the simulated earthquakes,the fragility curve,and empirical train flow data from 2016,we quantitatively assess the seismic impact and the risk faced by the Chinese railway system.The maximum train trip loss could reach 2400 trips in response to a single seismic event,accounting for 34%of the national daily train trips.Due to the spatially uneven daily train flow and seismicity distribution,the seismic impact on the railway system in different seismic zones is highly heterogeneous and does not always increase when the hazard intensity increases.More specifically,the results show that the railway lines located in the Qinghai-Tibet and Xinjiang seismic zones exhibit the highest risk.The generated impact curves and the risk map provide a basis for railway planning and risk management decisions.

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《国际灾害风险科学学报：英文版》 |2020年第4期|P.452-465|共14页
作者
Weihua Zhu; Kai Liu; Ming Wang; Elco E.Koks;
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作者单位

State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal University Beijing 100875 ChinaAcademy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management Faculty of Geographical Science Beijing Normal University Beijing 100875 China;

State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal University Beijing 100875 ChinaAcademy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management Faculty of Geographical Science Beijing Normal University Beijing 100875 China;

State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal University Beijing 100875 ChinaAcademy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management Faculty of Geographical Science Beijing Normal University Beijing 100875 China;

Institute for Environmental Studies(IVM) Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam 1081 HV Amsterdam The Netherlands;

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原文格式 PDF
正文语种 chi
中图分类工程地震;
关键词
Chinese railway system; Fragility curve; Seismicity model; Seismic risk;

机译：中国铁路系统;脆弱曲线;地震模型;地震风险;

Seismic Risk Assessment of the Railway Network of China’s Mainland

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