博弈理论可以对欠发达地区土地流转中承包方和农户的行为进行最优选择,中介组织作为隐性因子与承包方和农户共同成为欠发达地区土地流转中的重要经济分析要素.研究运用在政府引导下承包方和农户扩展式动态博弈模型对承包方和农户的行为选择剖析,并对承包方、农户及中介组织的行为予以经济分析.交叉博弈得出承包方与农户行为选择的最优策略集为{高价承包,中介介入后的流转价格},将博弈树转换为期望收益的博弈矩阵加以验证;利润最大化印证了欠发达地区承包方高价承包行为与中介组织设立的必要性,农户的禀赋效应影响着农户土地流转的行为选择.欠发达地区农村土地流转中承包方高价承包时的利润回收是一个长期的过程,需要理性农户和中介组织的长期配合方可实现三方共赢,期间政府的引导至关重要.%The game theory can optimize the behavior of contractors and farmers in land circulation in underdeveloped areas. Intermediaries as a recessive factor, together with contractors and farmers, become important factors for economic analysis of land circulation in underdeveloped areas. Using the method of extended dynamic game model between contractors and farmers under the government guidance, we analyzed the behavioral choices of contractors and farmers, and conducted an economic analysis on the behavior of the contractors, farmers and intermediaries. The results showed that contractors' and farmers' behavioral choices through cross acting could obtain the optimal strategy, which was the high price contract and the circulation price of by intermediary intervention, it was verified by putting the game tree transformed into game matrix; the profit maximization confirmed the necessity of high price contracting by contractors and the establishment of intermediaries in underdeveloped areas, the endowment effect of farmers affected farmers' behavioral choices of land circulation. Rural land circulation in underdeveloped areas has a long-term process to recover the profits when the contracts are at high prices, and the long-term cooperation of farmers and intermediaries are needed to achieve tripartite wins. During this process, government guidance is crucial.
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