利用吉首市1982-2013年4月15日-9月20日的日平均气温、降水量、相对温度、日照时数等气象观测资料,采用线性回归和显著性检验等统计方法,分析了气温、降水量、相对湿度、日照时数与中稻产量的关系,并建立中稻产量的预报模型.结果表明,32年来吉首市中稻产量呈波动上升的趋势,营养生长期和生殖生长期的气温、生殖生长期的降水量、营养生长期的相对湿度以及成熟收获期的日照时数等5个要素与中稻气候产量显著相关,根据这5个要素建立了与中稻产量的多元线性回归模型,并且通过了显著性检验,可以利用中稻产量预报模型指导中稻生产,更好地为当地农业生产服务.%Using the daily average temperature,precipitation,relative humidity and sunshine duration in Jishou City from April 15 to September 20 during 1982-2013,the relationship between temperature,precipitation,relative humidity,sunshine hours and the yield of mid-season rice was analyzed by using statistical methods such as linear regression and significance test,and the forecasting model of mid-season rice yield was established.The results showed that the yield of mid-season rice in Jishou City had a trend of rising volatility during the past 32 years,the five factors of temperature in vegetative and reproductive growth periods,precipitation in reproductive growth period,relative humidity in vegetative growth period and sunshine duration in mature harvest period were significantly correlated with the climatic yield of mid-season rice.According to the five factors,a multiple linear regression model was established with the yield of mid-season rice,and through the test of significance,the midseason rice yield prediction model can be used to guide the mid-season rice production and better serve the local agricultural production.
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