In order to study the issue of Poyang Lake Basin future water resources quantity under climate change, the trend of water resources in Poyang Lake Basin over the past 22 years was analyzed, the main climate factors that affect water resources were identified, a stepwise regression prediction model of water resources was established, the future water resources quantity of Poyang Lake Basin under three kinds of SRES scenario were predicted by using CMIP3 data, the results showed that the future water resources of Poyang Lake Basin will increase slightly.The research results can provide a theoretical support for the medium-and long-term plan of social and economic development in Poyang Lake Basin.%针对气候变化条件下鄱阳湖流域未来水资源量的问题,分析了鄱阳湖流域历史水资源量、降水量、蒸发量的变化趋势,确定了影响水资源量的主要气候因素,建立了水资源量多元逐步回归预测模型,然后采用全球气候模式(GCM)下的CMIP3数据,预测了鄱阳湖流域3种SRES情景下未来的水资源量,结果显示鄱阳湖流域的水资源量将有小幅增加.该研究结果可为鄱阳湖流域经济社会发展的中、长期规划提供理论支撑.
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