根据临安市区域特点和实际情况，从生态环境承载、社会承载、经济承载3个方面选取22项指标构建评价指标体系，研究其2005～2012年土地资源承载力的变化情况；同时基于土地利用总体规划的目标数据，预测规划期末土地综合承载力发展水平。结果表明：①临安市土地综合承载力在2005～2012年有了很大程度的提高，发展趋势基本上呈可持续状态，其中生态环境承载力的不断提升对提高综合承载力的贡献最大；②子系统间发展不均衡，其中生态环境承载能力提升最快，与之相适应的社会和经济发展水平有待进一步提高；③以规划目标数据为依据推算的规划期末（2020年）综合承载力水平，表明临安市土地资源利用基本能够实现可持续发展。最后，从加强土地资源高效集约利用，加快经济发展以及规划监管和政策引导等角度提出了提高土地资源承载力的建议。%According to regional characteristics and actual situation of Lin’an City, an evaluation index system of land comprehensive carrying capacity composed of three support subsystems (eco-environment, social and economic carrying capacity) containing 22 evaluation indicators was established to evaluate the comprehensive carrying capacity of land resources in Lin’an City during 2005-2012.Meanwhile, based on the target data of overall land use plan, the level of land comprehensive carrying capacity was predicted at the end of the plan period (2020). The results showed that land comprehensive carrying capacity in Lin’an City had a significant growth from 2005 to 2012, and the development trend was basically sustainable.The subsystems also had been greatly improved, in which the constant improvement of ecological environment carrying capacity made the largest contribution to the constant raising of land comprehensive carrying capacity .The degree of coordination be-tween the subsystems was poor, in which eco-environment carrying capacity had the maximum growth, far more than the social and economic carrying capacity.According to the land comprehensive carrying capacity in 2020, utilization of land resources in Lin’an City can achieve sus-tainable development in general.Finally, proposals of improving comprehensive carrying capacity were put forward in terms of enhancing effi-cient and intensive utilization of land resources, accelerating economic development and policy guidance.
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