采用ARIMA模型来拟合1957 ～2013年5～10月的月降水量并给出预测值.结果表明,ARIMA(0,2,1)能较好地拟合5～10月的月降水量数据,准确率较目前业务使用的阴阳历方法有所提高,可作为月预报的依据.%ARIMA model was adopted to fit monthly precipitation and draw predict value from May to Oct. during 1957 -2013. The resultsrnshowed that ARIMA(0, 2,1) could be used as monthly forecasting basis for its higher accuracy rate than lunar-solar superposition method.
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