根据山西省60多年来的粮食产量统计资料,对山西省粮食单产及主要粮食品种单产的波动性进行了分析,并进一步分析了粮食单产波动与气象灾害的相关性.结果表明,山西省粮食单产波动频繁；在主要粮食品种中,大豆单产波动最大,玉米单产波动最小.进一步的相关分析显示,自然灾害,尤其是旱灾,是山西省粮食单产波动的主要影响因素；在主要粮食品种中旱灾对玉米单产波动的影响最大；旱灾对粮食单产波动的影响有加大的趋势.%According to the statistical data of grain yield for over 60 years of Shanxi Province, the fluctuation of grain yield per unit area and main grain assortment per unit area yield were analyzed, the relavant between grain yield fluctuation and meteorological disasters was further analyzed. The results showed that grain yield per unit area in Shanxi Province fluctuates frequently; among main grain varieties, bean fluctuates maximumly, and maize fluctuates minimumly. Further relevant analysis revealed that, natural calamity, especially for drought, are main influencing factors for grain yield per unit area fluctuation. Drought disaster has significant influence on maize yield fluctuation. The effects of drought on grain yield per unit area fluctuation showed increasing trend.
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