利用Gumbel分布、Pearson-Ⅲ分布、Weibull分布对鹤壁市1965 ～ 2004年极端最高气温进行拟合检验,结果表明,Gumbel分布比其他2个分布拟合度更优；利用拟合度优秀的耿贝尔(Gumbel)极值分布,估算得出鹤壁未来50、80年可能出现的极端最高气温为43.2和43.8℃；利用二次指数平滑法,得到了鹤壁市最高气温年际变化总体上呈线性减少趋势的结论,通过滑动t检验,得出了在1981年前后鹤壁市最高气温变化趋势由升高变为降低,1991年前后变化趋势由降低变为升高；同时,20世纪80年代中期以来鹤壁市最高气温有波动上升、变化幅度呈逐年加大趋势,说明在未来一定时期内“极端高温事件”发生的概率增加；年度最高气温峰值主要集中出现在盛夏的6月份,其次是7月份,有比较明显的季节特征.%By using Gumbel distribution, pearson - IHdistribution and Weibull distribution, fitting test was conducted on highest temperature in Hebi City during 1965 -2004. The results showed Gumbel distribution is better. By using Gumbel distribution, the extreme highest temperature may be 43. 2, 43.8 ℃ in the future 50a and 80a; By using the double exponential smoothing method, it was concluded that the highest temperature annual variation in Hebi City shows decreasing trend. The highest temperature variation trend first increased then decreased a-round 1981, while the variation trend first decreased then increased around 1991. Since 1980s'the highest temperature in Hebi City increased with a fluctuation, indicating the occurrence probability of extreme high temperature events increased. Annual highest temperature peak value mainly concentrated in June and July.
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