基于1981～2010年衡水11个县市的气象资料和同期的果树冻害观测资料,应用数理统计方法,分析了衡水市果树冻害可能发生时段的气候变化,以及在气候变暖背景下不同冻害类型的发生规律及变化趋势,得出冻害发生的初步判定条件；随着气候变暖,气候不稳定性增加,果树遭遇晚秋初冬冻害和晚霜冻害的风险上升,而越冬冻害的发生率在下降；晚秋初冬冻害的发生程度受日平均气温下降幅度的影响较大；越冬冻害、晚霜冻害的发生程度与极端最低气温密切相关.%Based on the climate data of 11 meteorological stations and freezing injury data of fruit trees in Hengshui from 1981 to 2010, the relationship between the occurrence and trends of freezing injury to fruit trees and climate change were analyzed by statistic method. The results showed that with the climate change, the risk of freezing injury about fruit trees in last autumn, early winter and early spring was increased, while that in midwinter was declined. There were good correlations between the drop of daily average temperature and the level of freezing injury in late autumn and early winter, and the level of freezing injury in midwinter and spring was influenced by the extreme minimum temperature and the lasting period of low temperature.
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