[Objective] The research aimed to study the ecological risk assessment and prediction of land use in the oasis county of arid area. [Method]Taking Baicheng County of Xinjiang as the research object, under the support of ArcMap 10.3 technology, the remote sensing images from 2009 and 2016 as the information source. This article constructed the comprehensive ecological risk index (ERI) of Baicheng County and used the spatial interpolation method of ArcGIS to analyse the dynamic evolution of ecological risk of land use in Baicheng County and the spatial differentiation characteristics of different levels of ecological risk.The change of land use structure in Baicheng County in 2020 was predicted by Markov prediction model, and the ecological risk influence of the change of land use structure on oasis counties in typical arid areas of Xinjiang was revealed.[Result] The area of cultivated land and construction land were increasing from 2009 to 2016, the area of forestland, grassland, water and other land were decreasing significantly. Through forecasting, compared with 2016, the area of construction land and other land were increasing significantly in 2020, while the area of cultivated land, forestland, grassland and water were decreasing significantly.The ERI of Baicheng County in 2009 was 0.024, and increased to 0.029 in 2016, and with the continuous deterioration of the ecological environment, it will increase to 0.031 in 2020.[Conclusion] In the future adjustment of land use structure, people should strengthen their awareness of protecting the environment, build a good pattern of ecological land in Baicheng County, improve the ecosystem service function, and reduce the negative impact of human activities on the environment.%[目的]研究干旱区绿洲县域土地利用生态风险评价及预测.[方法]以新疆拜城县为例, ArcMap 10.3为技术支持, 2009和2016年的遥感影像为信息源, 构建了拜城县的综合性生态风险指数 (ERI) 并借助GIS进行空间插值, 由此分析了拜城县土地利用生态风险动态演变以及不同等级的生态风险的空间分布特征.并通过马尔科夫预测模型预测拜城县2020年的土地利用结构变化, 揭示土地利用结构的变化对新疆典型干旱区绿洲县域生态风险的影响.[结果]2009—2016年拜城县耕地和建设用地面积增加, 林地、草地、水域和其他用地面积明显下降.通过预测所得, 与2016年相比, 2020年建设用地和其他用地面积明显增加, 耕地、林地、草地和水域面积明显减少.2009年拜城县ERI为0.024, 2016年增长为0.026, 随着生态环境的持续恶化, 2020年增长至0.031.[结论]在未来土地利用结构调整过程中, 人们应加强保护环境的意识, 在拜城县构建良好的生态用地格局, 提高全县生态系统服务功能, 降低人类活动对环境造成的不良影响.
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