目的 :(1)使用二分类Logistic回归模型筛选出与比赛结果高度相关的指标;(2)根据筛选的指标建立影响比赛结果的Logistic回归方程.对象2016年澳大利亚网球公开赛男子单打128名网球运动员的全部165场比赛.方法 :以国际男子职业网球巡回赛官方所公布的各项技术指标为预选自变量;通过澳大利亚网球公开赛官方网站获取各场次比赛的数据,使用Excel2003软件进行数据录入和整理,使用SPSS20.0软件对数据进行正态分布(K-S)检验,对不服从正态分布的数据进行非参数检验(Kruskal-Wallis H)、对服从正态分布的数据使用独立样本t检验,对各检验结果进行相关性分析,使用二项Logistic回归模型,以比赛结果 :获胜=1,失败=0为因变量对指标进行筛选并构建模型,通过回带检验验证模型的准确性.结果:(1)筛选出高度影响男子职业网球比赛胜负结果的五项指标;(2)根据筛选指标建立相应的Logistic回归模型.结论 :(1)现代高水平网球比赛要求运动员具备全面发展的技术能力,高效益下的技术稳定发挥是职业网球的发展方向.(2)运动员的攻 、防及稳定发挥能力是影响比赛结果的主要因素,在训练中应针对性地增加攻防对抗练习.%Objective 1)The Logistic regression model was used to select the factor which was highly correlated with the results of the competition.2) Logistic regression equation was established according to the selected index.Target :2016 Australian Open men's singles 128 tennis players all 165 games.Methods :According to the statistical indexes selected in this paper,the data of each match was obtained through the official website of the Australian Open Tennis Tournament,and the data were recorded by using Excel2007,and using the SPSS20.0 software to test the data for normal distribution (K-S) and using (K ruskal-W allis H) for data not conforming to the normal distribution,using independent sample t-test for data subject to normal distribution,using logistic regression model to analyze the test results.The results of the competition :Win = 1 and failure = 0 were used to select the indicators and construct the model.The accuracy of the model was verified by the backtracking test. Results (1) Five factors were selected to influence the outcome of men ' s professional tennis. (2) Logistic regression model was established according to the screening index.Conclusion (1) The five factors that influence the outcome of men's professional tennis are 1st serve ％,win ％ on 1st serve,win ％ on 2nd serve,receiving points win,break point conversions.(2) In the actual game,athletes' attacking and defending ability and the stable performance of the two factors are the main factors which influence the result of the competition. Therefore,we should practice the relevant tennis special skill ability as the key.
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