针对2000-2009年安徽省淮北地区夏季22例暖式切变线暴雨过程,利用MICAPS平台获取的多种资料、NCEP逐6h的2.5°×2.5°再分析资料和T213资料,应用天气分析、对比订正等方法,研究暖式切变线暴雨气候特征及其预报预警.基于大气环流形势分析暴雨影响系统,根据暴雨发生前后的物理量变化得出NCEP资料的物理量阈值,利用T213资料对物理量阈值进行订正,根据满足指标阈值的物理量个数分3个等级进行暴雨的可能性预警,通过预报预警系统界面实现暴雨预报的自动化实时显示,并对预报效果进行试报检验和实际检验.%Based on the data from MICAPS,NCEP reanalysis data (2.5° × 2.5°) and T213 data,climate characteristic and prediction of warm wind shear were studied by weather analysis and correction and so on.Rainstorm influence system was analyzed by atmospheric circulation situation.According to the various physical quantity change,the physical quantity thresholds of warm wind shear were gotten.3 levels of possibility quantity warning were made by contrast and correction.Rainstorm prediction automation display was realized,and prediction results were tested.
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