In order to study the reasonable passing scores of the course examination, the examine’s ability, goal and difficulty level are analyzed. Probability hierarchical analysis model is developed by using probability model and analytic hierarchy process. Using this model we make an empirical study on the determination of the passing grade of the computer basic course in tourism and culture College of yunnan University. Research believes that probability hierarchical analysis model to determine the passing grade than the absolute score 60 points as pass mark to be scientific, reasonable, more able to reflect the fairness of the exam.%文章研究课程考试合理的及格分数线。对应试者能力、目标、难度进行分析，运用概率模型及层次分析模型构建概率层次分析模型，对云南大学旅游文化学院大学计算机基础课程考试及格分数线的确定进行实证研究，结果表明，概率层次分析模型确定的及格分数线比绝对分数60分为及格分数线要科学、合理，更能体现考试的公平。
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