当前，随着社会转型的不断深化，我国进入了群体性暴力事件的高发期。为进一步了解此类事件的形成机制，降低群体性暴力事件对社会稳定带来的负面影响，作者在agent建模、社会燃烧理论以及羊群效应等理论的基础上搭建了一个群体性暴力事件的形成模型，仿真了无警力条件下群体性暴力事件自发形成的过程。大量仿真结果表明，在群体性暴力事件发生现场的区域内人员密度、“点燃”事件的类型、所在地区的可目视范围以及当地社会环境中的舆论导向等因素均会对群体性暴力事件的产生及发展带来不同程度的影响。该结果将为相关部门预防与处置群体性暴力事件提供重要的理论依据。%Currently, along with the reform of society our country is entering a high-incidence season of collective violence. For further understanding of the forming mechanism for the collective violence and reducing the negative effects of the collective violence on social security, this paper build a new model for the formation of the collective violence by agent-based modeling. The model simulated a collective violence event from the bottom up in a no police condition and testiifed the explanation of the social combustion theory to the collective violence. A large number of simulation results show that population density, the types of emergencies, visions of participants, dissatisfaction with the society and so on have a close relationship with the formation and the development of the collective violence. This analysis will provide a scientiifc guidance for relevant departments in the prevention and control of the collective violence.
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