By using logistic regression models and deterministic coefficient CF,we establish a landslide prob-ability forecasting model for slope stability analysis.Combined with 42 slope cases of ionic rare earth mine in Gan-nan,we select 5 influence factors as severe,cohesive force,internal friction angle,slope angle and pore pressure ratio as input,and slope state as output,regression analysis is done by SPSS software,and a credible landslide probability fitting function is got.We feedback the forecast model and analysis results to the sample data,sample data input value and predicted value difference under 10% of more than 95%,illustrates the rationality of the fore-casting model;Accurately predicting the nine rare earth mine slope stability shows the accuracy of the prediction model.The difference between the sample data input value and the forecast value below 10% is more than 95%, explained the rationality of the forecasting model.The stability of 9 rare earth mines is predicted and the accuracy of the prediction model is explained.%应用逻辑回归模型和确定性系数 CF 建立滑坡概率预测模型，进行边坡稳定性分析，结合赣南离子型稀土矿山42个边坡实例，选取重度、内聚力、内摩擦角、边坡角、孔隙压力比5个影响因子作为输入，边坡状态作为输出，用 SPSS 软件进行回归分析，获得可信的滑坡概率拟合函数。将预测模型和分析结果反馈到样本数据，样本数据输入值和预测值差值在10％以下的超过95％，说明了预测模型的合理性；准确预测了9个稀土矿山边坡稳定性，说明了预测模型的准确性。
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