利用1984－2013年统计数据，分析福建省粮食产量和气象灾害的变化趋势。运用相关分析和敏感性分析，分别研究了5种气象灾害对5种粮食作物的影响程度，并在此基础上提出政策建议，为福建省粮食生产的持续发展和科学决策提供借鉴。结果表明：①气象灾害对福建省粮食生产具有负面影响；②对福建省粮食生产影响最大的气象灾害是台风，其次是风雹，受一般强度和高强度台风影响最大的分别是稻谷和小麦，而受一般强度和高强度风雹影响最大的分别是玉米和小麦；③气象灾害受灾率和成灾率每变动1％，福建省粮食单产分别变动6.35％和21.56％。稻谷、玉米、薯类、大豆均对一般强度旱灾和高强度风雹最为敏感，其中又分别以薯类和玉米为最，仅有小麦对一般强度和高强度的霜冻最为敏感。%Based on statistics from 1984 to 2013,the change trend of grain outputs and meteorological disas-ters are analyzed in Fujian province.The effects of 5 kinds of meteorological disasters on 5 kinds of food production are analyzed by sensitivity analysis and correlation analysis respectively.On this basis,some policy recommenda-tions are put forward in order to provide references for the sustainable development and scientific decision-making of grain production.Results showed that:①Meteorological disasters had negative impacts on grain yieldin Fujian.②Typhoon had the greatest impacts on food production in Fujian,followed by wind-hail.The general-strength and high-strength typhoon had the greatest impacts on rice and wheat respectively,but the general-strength and high-strength wind-hail had the greatest impacts on corn and wheat respectively.③As the meteorological disaster-affect-ed and disaster-inundated rate changed 1%,the grain yield changed 6.35% and 21.56% respectively in Fu-jian.Rice,corn,potato,soybean are the most sensitive to the general-strength drought and the high-strength wind-hailrespectively,in which potato and soybean are the most sensitive respectively.Only wheat is the most sensitive to the general-strength and high-strength frost.
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