在西方自然灾害及灾后恢复与人口变化关系的理论和实证研究基础上，构建了中国自然灾害影响人口变化的实证模型。通过控制人口变化的社会经济变量，探索性研究了自然灾害对中国人口数量以及低保人数变化的影响，发现灾害损失额与人口数量增长和低保人数增长呈正相关，提示我们中国当今的灾害救助和灾后恢复政策不应过度重视短期的经济恢复，而忽视了因此而产生的长期的负面人口影响。针对研究所发现的不良人口后果，提出了避免人口过度聚集和保障农村弱势群体的政策性思考。%Based on the theories and empirical researches about the impacts of natural disasters and the recov-ery on demographic changes,the explanatory model to detect the impacts in China is constructed.In the models, the relationship between natural disasters and the changes on the population size and the number of the poverty is studied while social and economic factors are controlled.It is discovered that there are positive relations between the damages of natural disasters and population increase and the poverty increase.The results from this study throw light on the disaster relief and recovery system in which the undue property recovery in short term should be avoided and the negative impacts on population in long term should not be ignored.Aimed to the disadvantageous demo-graphic consequences,several political suggestions are proposed to avoid too many people exposed in risks and to protect the poverty from disasters.
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