首页> 中文期刊> 《灾害学》 >潜在森林火险评估方法研究--以山东省为例

潜在森林火险评估方法研究--以山东省为例

         

摘要

森林火险图在森林火灾管理和研究(望塔、风险评估和其它各种仿真研究)中扮演着至关重要的角色,在充分考虑导致火灾的因素(常量和变量)着火可能性基础上,利用遥感(RS)数据获取速度快、面积大和地理信息系统(GIS)空间分析特点生成静态和动态指数构成集成火险指数。静态火险指数将多年近地面平均气温、多年近地面空气比湿、植被类型、植被覆盖度、海拔、坡度、坡向、距居民地距离、距道路距离、人口素质等引起火灾最为重要的10个因素作为研究因子;动态火险指数利用美国潜在火险指数模型,利用MODIS数据波段多、反演数据强的特点,获取了地表温度、大气湿度、植被湿度等数据得到死、活可燃物湿度。通过2011年132个火点的验证,火点处的集成火险指数值在非常高以上占了82.6%,说明了集成火险指数在潜在火险应用方面的价值。%Forest fire risk map plays a very important role in the management and research (watchtowers,risk assessment and various other simulations)on forest fire.According to full consideration on fire probability of fire-causing factors (constants and variables),integrated fire danger index are composed by using remote sensing (RS) data and static and dynamic index generated from spatial analysis characteristics of geographic information system (GIS).The most important 10 factors of fire are average surface temperature,near ground air humidity ratio,vege-tation type,vegetation coverage,altitude,slope,slope direction and distance from residents,distances from roads, population quality.Static fire danger index take those factors into study.By using fire potential index model of the United States and MODIS data,land surface temperature,air humidity,vegetation humidity data,etc are got from dynamic fire hazard index to obtain moisture of died and living fuel.Verification is done to 132 fire points in 2011. Results show that the integrated fire danger index occupies 82.6%above the extremely high range,which indicate that it is quite important in potential fire application.

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