通过分析近几十年来北部湾北部流域入海通量变化及其海湾生态环境灾害的变化特征，进而探讨相关影响因素。主要结果表明，1991年来北部湾北部河流入海污染物通量呈明显增加趋势，海岸则以较快速率侵蚀后退，海湾水质明显恶化。同时，海湾溢油污染和赤潮等生态环境灾害在规模上出现扩大和蔓延趋势。此外，影响北部湾北部的台风、风暴潮在频率上有增加、强度上增强。考虑到全球变化和人类活动的进一步加剧，北部湾北部海岸生态环境灾害预期将会加剧，海湾资源环境则可能遭受更大威胁。由此，进一步指出应加强流域-海湾系统全过程监控、海湾地区生态经济协调发展研究。%By analyzing flux changes and variation characteristics of the gulf ecological environment disasters of the northern Beibu Gulf,related influencing factors are discussed.The main results show that the pollutant fluxes of the river flows into the Northern Beibu Gulf are increasing obviously,while the coast is eroded with relatively fast retreated rate and water quality of the gulfs is largely deteriorated.Meanwhile,the ecological environment disasters of the gulfs such as oil pollution and red tide,has been enlarged both in space and time with expanding trends.Mo-reover,the frequency and intensity of typhoon and storm surges of the northern Beibu Gulf have increasing trends. Considering the further aggravation of the global changes and human activities,the ecological environment disasters along the coast of northern Beibu Gulf could be expected to increased,and the resources and the environment will be suffered serious challenges.Therefore,it is suggested that monitoring the whole process of the basin-gulf system and coordinated development of the eco-economic of the bay area should strengthened.
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