泥石流是山区常见的自然现象,每年都会带来严重的经济损失和人员伤亡,严重影响到山区的经济发展.合理的预报成为一项经济有效的重要减灾手段,但是对于泥石流汇流过程的预报还没有一个科学有效的方法.利用SCS模型结合ARCGIS技术,初步探索泥石流汇流过程,对泥石流汇流过程和最大流量进行预测；并选择泥石流多发区大凹子沟小流域作为研究对象,根据实际泥石流汇流过程对模拟结果进行对比,主要获得如下认识:①采用ARC-SCS模型对1999年6月16日发生的泥石流汇流过程进行初步预测,结果显示,最大清水流量为16.31 m3/s,泥石流最大流量为51.98 m3/s,计算的泥石流最大流量与实际调查结果误差仅为9.2％；②泥石流的整个汇流过程持续约为40 min,根据野外实际调查结果来看,泥石流汇流过程计算误差较小.可见基于分布式水文模型泥石流流量预测具有一定的应用意义,预测结果可以促进泥石流工程防治的开展,为泥石流防治和预报提供基础.%Debris flow is a common natural phenomenon in mountain areas, bring serious economic and casualties each year, which seriously affected the economic development of mountainous areas. The reasonable prediction of debris flow is an importance cost-effective mitigation measures, but predicting the convergence process of debris flows does not have a valid scientific method. In this paper, take the debris flow in Jiangjia gully as example , the process of water flow process in a watershed was studied preliminarily by using the SCS model combined with hydraulic method, and then the debris flow runoff process was calculated using the empirical formula for debris-flow discharge combining the water flow. The results show that: (1) the peak discharge of water flow was equal to 16. 31m3/s, and that of debris flow was 51. 98 m3/s according to the ARC-SCS model of debris flow occurred on 1999-06-16 in Dawazi gully. The error between the calculated and measured values is 9. 2%. (2) the debris flow convergence process lasts 40min, the debris flow convergence process of calculation is similar with actual result according to field investigation results. The debris flow runoff process predict based on distributed hydrological model can be used in mitigation of the debris flow, the prediction results can promote the prevention and control project carried out and provide the basic data for the debris flow prevention and prediction.
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