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我国自然灾害时空分布及其粮食风险评估

         

摘要

分析了旱灾、水灾、风雹灾、霜冻灾、台风灾和农业病虫害、草害、鼠害8种自然灾害的时空分布情况,计算了其造成的历年粮食减产量,并在此基础上评估2020年自然灾害对粮食产量的影响.结果表明,2020年不同自然灾害对我国各省粮食生产的影响程度不同.旱灾风险区集中在我国北方地区,分布在黄淮海区、西北区等;涝灾风险区集中在我国南方地区,分布在长江中下游区等;风雹灾风险区对我国粮食产量影响相对较小,主要分布在新疆和青海;台风灾风险区集中在我国南方沿海地区;农业病虫害风险区集中在我国的南方地区,分布在华南沿海区和西南区等;而霜冻灾、农业草害、鼠害对粮食生产的影响范围和影响程度较小.%The major disasters including droughts, floods, wind and hail disasters, frost disasters, typhoon disasters, agricultural pests, agricultural weeds and agricultural rodents are studied, and spatial and temporal distribution of eight kinds of disasters is analyzed. The deduction of agricultural production over the years caused by these disasters is calculated and the influence of natural hazards on grain yield in China in 2020 is assessed. The results show that different natural hazards cause different impacts on grain production in different provinces in 2020.The drought risk areas concentrate in the North China, such as Yellow River and Huaihe River Basin and northwest region. The flood risk areas concentrate in the South China, such as the areas in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The effects of wind and hail hazards on grain yield in China are relatively less. The risk areas of wind hails mainly distribute in Xinjiang and Qinghai. The risk areas of typhoon hazards concentrated in southern coastal areas. The agricuhural pest risk areas are mainly distributed in the South China, such as southern coastal area and Southwest China. And the influence of frost disaster, agricultural weeds agricultural rodents on grain production is relatively less.

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