The prediction of weather forecasting pest major trends in pest forecasting weather conditions mainly the area of forest pest damage prediction and weather forecasting are rare. In this study, statistical methods, statistical analysis of meteorological factors in the development of loose leaf disease, the impact of the loose leaf area weather forecast disease risk prediction, prevention of plant diseases and pests in forestry work has significant scientific and technological significance. Research shows that Gansu Xiaolongshan forest area of loose leaf disease occurrence and development of suitable warm, humid climate, not heat. Cold autumn rain forest last year and the mild winter climate conducive to spores suitable period of winter dormancy and safety; warm and wet spring, summer, damp climate more conducive to the production of bacteria and spores mature dissipate into the atmosphere, resulting in pine forest is like a large area of crops infect susceptible. Disease risk through loose leaf area weather prediction model generation of historical back testing, prior year fall and spring of the year 16-year forecasts and actual hazard area hazard area mean absolute percentage error of prediction accuracy rate of 10.0% were less than 93.75%. Three years of 2008,2009,2010 disease hazard area pine needle drop test trial reported, 3 years and the actual test area reported damage area percentage of 10.0% absolute error rate of less than 100% accurate prediction, forecast and report test results than the ideal.%目前病虫害的气象预报预测研究主要以病虫害发展趋势的气象条件预报为主,林业病虫危害面积的气象预报预测研究并不多见.本研究采用统计学方法,统计分析环境气象条件对松落叶病发生发展的影响,进行松落叶病危害面积的气象预报预测,对林业病虫灾害的预防工作具有显著的科技指导意义.研究表明,甘肃小陇山林区松落叶病的发生发展适宜温暖、湿润的气候环境,不耐高温.林区上年秋末阴雨低温和暖冬气候有利病菌孢子适期体眠和安全越冬；春季温暖湿润、夏季潮湿多雨气候更有利于病菌分生孢子的产生和成熟散放,造成松属类林作物大面积侵染感病.通过松落叶病危害面积气象预测预报模型历史回代检验,上年秋季和当年春季16年预报危害面积与实际危害面积平均绝对误差百分率10.0％以内预报准确率均为93.75％.对2008、2009、2010年三年松落针病危害面积进行试报检验,3a试报面积与实际危害面积绝对误差百分率10.0％以内预报准确率均达100％,预测和试报效果均较理想.
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