稻水象甲（Lissorhoptrus oryzophilus）是源自北美的外来入侵害虫，会对水稻产业产生严重的威胁.本研究利用生态位模型结合GIS技术，对入侵害虫稻水象甲在苏州当前和未来气候情景下的入侵风险进行了预测分析.结果表明，在当前气候条件下，稻水象甲在苏州的适生区、边缘适生区和非适生区所占的面积比例分别为13%，81%和6%.在未来气候条件（RCP4.5）下，适生性会进一步提高.%Lissorhoptrus oryzophilus, an invasive pest which originated from North America, poses a great threat to rice production. The potential distribution regions of this invasive pest was estimated and studied under cur⁃rent and future (2050) climate scenarios in Suzhou using MaxEnt model and GIS. The distribution patterns of L. oryzophilus in suitable regions, marginal and non-suitable regions were found to be 13%, 81%, and 6% respec⁃tively, under current climate conditions. The distribution regions of L. oryzophilus are presenting an increasing trend in Suzhou under future climate scenario (RCP4.5).
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