对轨道电路设备进行健康状态评估和剩余寿命预测是开展设备状态修的重要前提,可以有效地保障系统安全运行.建立基于模糊综合评判的ZPW-2000A轨道电路设备健康指数模型,对其设备进行健康状态评估,以评估结果即健康指数 HI为基础,针对系统设备受运行环境、设备自身质量、维护检修状况等各种随机、不确定因素的影响,建立基于随机模糊理论的ZPW-2000A轨道电路设备寿命预测模型.通过模型预测确立设备的健康指数随运行时间的变化规律,实现对轨道电路设备的寿命预测.实例验证表明,根据设备的健康状态可以快速有效地预测其寿命与剩余寿命,为有关维修部门开展设备的状态修提供理论依据.%The health status assessment and remaining life prediction of the track circuit equipment are an impor-tant premise to carry out status-based maintenance of equipment,which can effectively ensure the safe opera-tion of the system .Firstly,the health index model of ZPW-2000A track circuit equipment based on fuzzy com-prehensive evaluation was built,based on which the health status of the equipment was assessed .Secondly,de-pending on the evaluation results,or the health index HI,considering the influence of various random and un-certain factors on the equipment such as the operating environment,the quality of the equipment and mainte-nance status,a random fuzzy theory-based life prediction model of ZPW-2000A track circuit equipment was es-tablished .Through the model prediction,the variation of the health indexes of the equipment with operating time was established,and life prediction of the track circuit equipment was realized .The example showed that the life and the remaining life of the equipment can be predicted quickly and effectively according to the health status of the equipment,which provides a theoretical basis to carry out status-based maintenance for the main-tenance department .
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